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Today's Commentary: 02.17.07
The Nairu Nudge


By Paul Petillo

To those outside the world of finance, the word nairu might be mistaken for a late sixties fashion statement. But in the tongue of bankers, especially those at the Federal Reserve, the term is much more complicated and because of that, the subject of increasing debate.

An acronym for non-accelerating inflation rate of employment, nairu is closely watched for signs of change. The Fed believes that if employment reaches a certain level, employers will be forced to raise wages to attract new employees. It will never reach zero of full employment however because of business ebbs and flows and the presence of disabled and/or disparaged workers.

They also believe when employers begin to raise the level of pay, this additional cost will not result in a parallel increase in productivity.

Because of these higher wage costs, businesses will be forced to raise prices for the consumer creating inflation where none existed. A balance between these forces, employment, productivity and inflation is what the F.O.M.C has tried so hard to accomplish with the short-term overnight rate.

Now Nairu is coming under closer scrutiny in the Bernanke Fed. Nairu, generally represented by the actual unemployment rate is merely a forecast and because the committee is made up of numerous fed governors, the consensus rules over a single voice.

In a previously issued opinion, the Fed saw an increase in inflation as the direct result of lower unemployment with a forecasting a range of unemployment between 4.5% and 5%. Now, the Fed has shifted their thinking somewhat suggesting that there is no magic Nairu number that will force inflation to move significantly.

Two things might undermine that thinking. The first comes from an unexpected increase in resource utilization. The cost of energy and raw materials could push inflation higher without changing unemployment significantly. Even with some commodities selling off their 2006 highs, the very real possibility that they have reached a bottom already this year worries both Bernanke and businesses.

The second involves perception. The public generally sees inflation as a report of the here and now. But it is in fact a snapshot of what has been. Should unemployment drop and subsequently push inflation up, the Fed would not have as much in the way of reaction time. Once unemployment/inflation reach certain levels, it can be doubly difficult to get it back down using interest rates alone. A move in the overnight rate can alter perception in the near term but in reality, interest rate shifts take months to work their way into the economy.

Fortunately, Bernanke has a weakening economy on his side. Housing has softened considerably, manufacturing has seen a drop-off capacity, and the consumer has remained willing to buy at a better-than-expected rate. Cold weather in the east will likely help ease any pressure by pushing the unemployment rate higher.

Bernanke can rest assured that he has little to do but wait. The markets can anticipate a year with the rate remaining steady at 5.25%. Decoupling unemployment and inflation will give the Fed a little more wiggle room. But just how much room will be needed should the economy weaken further remains to be seen.

Determining the natural rate of unemployment changes from decade to decade. In the nineties, the natural rate was 6.2%. Economists now believe that the rate in this decade would be closer to 5.5%, well above the current unemployment rate. Inflation is above the previously acknowledged Fed target of 2%. By those measures alone, inflation is already at work in this economy.

The only question that remains: what additional information needs to surface before the Fed changes their current stand on rates? If he focuses on prices, he might not be able to control the accompanying change in the unemployment rate. If he doesn't do anything, suggesting that the two no longer correlate, the soft landing that everyone has hoped for will be much harder.


Today's Commentary: 02.19.07
An Investment Divided: Behind the ETF

By Paul Petillo

When is an investment more than the sum of its parts? When are the parts for sale to other investors who, once they own them sell them short, take their profit, returns the rest to the investment firm who then splits the remainder with you? If you answered "when you own an exchange traded fund, specifically one managed by Barclays, Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan" feel free to move on. You are probably fully on board with the practice, one that generates additional fees for the investment firm with only a small trinket for the shareholder.

But if you own these relatively new additions to the world of mutual funds and are unaware of the practice, it might come as quite the surprise.

If, one the other hand, you were on the fence about ETFs, attracted by the ability to trade them as frequently as stock and wondering how some of these index funds did better from their staid counterparts, you would do well to take a peek at an investment divided.

Back in 1993, the late Nate Most introduced the Spider, a fund that traded like a stock but mimicked the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of large cap stocks.

This type of tradable index fund shed new light and increased revenues on the beleaguered Amex (American Stock Exchange). They currently account for half of the shares changing hands. These funds have now become a force to be considered among the investment community although the $7.2 trillion mutual fund industry still makes light of the threat. Quickly advancing in terms of tax efficiency, lowered fees, and convenience, the ETF has come into its own as a place of indexed protection.

Vanguard has launched its own imitations of ETFs called VIPERs with many other funds creating similar offerings. While this is a typical form of Wall Street flattery, many fund managers have found the ETF an excellent place to equitize their cash reserves. In other words, using an ETF allows the fund to remain invested in a liquid asset.

Another benefit of these offerings allows fund managers to actively play industries or sectors that they perceive to be attractive. The risk is not eliminated however and may even be heightened. Many ETFs give the appearance of balance but may in fact be heavily weighted with large holdings creating a disproportionate amount of the index's total investment.

Moving away from a strictly equity based fund, a gold index fund from streetTRACKs was based on the commodity with each share offering a portion of an actual ingot. Initially Wall Street believed such an offering would entice foreign investors away from dollar based investments such as Treasuries to an offering with an actual metal attached.

The Net Asset Value of ETF is calculated in much the same manner as a mutual fund would. The NAV calculated by the mutual fund does not reflect supply and demand. Supply and demand are primary forces in the open market and because of that, the share price of an ETF may be trading higher or lower than the underlying worth of the total index.

ETFs do outperform mutual funds in terms of flexibility. The ability to trade throughout the day is one of the primary attractions for investors interested in ETFs. Frequent traders however may feel the sting of commissions more than those who chose another longer-term strategy.

Several things make these shares worth serious consideration. The first is that pesky problem of discount. In a market correction, ETFs may be, on the surface, worth more than the NAV of the securities they represent.

Another deals with expenses and the possible illusion that you are saving money. Expenses are considerably less than many index funds but this is also a smoke and mirrors effect. Unless you hold onto the ETF for a sufficient amount of time to offset the cost of the purchased ETF (add in broker's fees on both ends of the trade) along with the expenses, you are probably better suited for a mutual fund.

One of the most under considered expense is taxes. In a mutual fund, an investor sells shares and the whole fund feels the ripple effect. In order for that investor to receive the value of their investment, the fund that has 100% of its shareholder money at work must sell something to pay off the departing shareholder. This can negatively impact the remaining long-term investors. If the stocks that are sold have experienced gains, capital gains taxes must also be paid.

In the world of ETFs, this exchange of shares for dollars is done between other shareholders and doesn't impact anyone other than those involved. Be aware though of two things that can be considered taxable and unavoidable. The securities in an ETF may still pay capital gains distributions. The second one is an indexing problem. When the fund needs to rebalance because of a change in the benchmark, stocks sold may have capital gains as well.

The choice of ETFs over mutual funds should be considered very carefully. In a long-term investment strategy that employs dollar cost averaging, the benefits of ETFs fade very quickly.

The real trouble with ETFs comes largely with lagging returns. This is why Barclays is taking advantage of an S.E.C. approved technique to improve those returns often without the knowledge of the investors involved.

The concept behind borrowing and lending securities is not new. Hedge funds who specialize in such strategies as short selling have often bought share held by firms for just that purpose. Doing it with exchange-traded funds however is a relatively new development and one the industry is not all that willing to discuss openly.

Short selling involves borrowing a security and selling it, with the hope those prices will fall. The borrower can then purchase the same shares at a less expensive price replacing the borrowed shares and pocketing the difference.

Here's where the problem comes in and why the individual investor should worry. When profits such as these are available, the shareholder of an ETF becomes secondary to the investment company's objective of increased revenues. This kind of conflict, as yet fully addressed by the S.E.C. shortchanges the shareholder of often-sizable returns.

While Barclays, the company that manages iShares ETFs does return some of this income to the shareholders, it can amount to less than 0.2%. This additional income, perceived by the company (and the S.E.C. to be fair and reasonable) should leave shareholders with a bad taste in their mouth. This 50-50 arrangement as the company portrays largely deceives the shareholder even if they know about the arrangement.

Firms lending shares generally hire outside agents to sell those shares. In-house agents, while bringing increased scrutiny allow companies such as Barclays to keep the fees adding them to the already disclosed advisory fees. Those fees can run from 10-50% of the transaction cost and are, if the transaction is done at the selling firm, fully absorbed.

Volatile portfolio composition such as the kind available in small-cap and international ETFs is particularly attractive to both the seller and the hedge fund looking to short. As investors trade in these types securities, they often overlook these subtle nuances taking the funds return at face value.

One might suggest that the profitability of the managing company is as important as the shareholder returns and they would be right. But profitability should be transparent and the shareholder should be at the heart and soul of a fund company's focus. Where mutual funds succeed in putting the shareholder first, ETFs fail.



Previous Commentary available here


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