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  • How the Bond Markets React
    A New Weekly Fixed Income Feature at the BlueCollarDollar

    03.31.04
    Another Important Number
    03.31.04

    According to the ISM, the definition of supply management is "the identification, acquisition, access, positioning, and management of resources the organization needs or potentially needs in the attainment of its strategic objectives."


    So why does supply management play such a key role in today's trading, perhaps even more important that the jobs report due out on Friday?

    The Institute for Supply Management, a non-profit organization that has been around since 1915, publishes a number of reports on the health of orders in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing. The ISM index shows strength or weakness in such things as the number of orders that are in the pipeline as well as the state of backlog, which can be an excellent indication of how employment will be effected.

    The report issued today will concern itself with numbers from February. Traders should be looking for an uptick in the number from last month's reading of 63.6% largely due to continued weakness in the dollar.

    The index reflects several different aspects of the business environment from production and new orders to the relative growth in employment that results from increased sales. It also reflects the sate of inventories and the time needed to fill orders.

    Last month showed report also indicated an increase in price for the third consecutive month. Last month's number was however mixed, with some industries experiencing significant increases while others were left wondering whether all of the talk of recovery had passed them by. The numbers are based on the monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. (Last month's full report)

    That isn't to say that the job number lacks importance. It is still a statistic that will sway the Federal Reserve and set the timetable for a change in a monetary policy. A strong report will see the yield rise on the Ten year Note but don't expect it to move above 4%.

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