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Trotting out the Optimists
My wife has an incredible gift with paint. She sees in colors, which if you
think about it, is far superior to seeing in black and white. And as
multi-colored as the world of finance often seems to be, most of what it has
become of late is even more confusing to the untrained eye. Heck, even
trained seers have found post 09.11 troubling. Suddenly, the world of money
appears gray. No worry though.
The investment community has trotted out some of their old sages to help with
the lack of optimism, and read the color right back into the current economy.
But will a fresh coat of paint actually help matters, or merely mask what
couldn't be fixed?
It is very true that being in the current market is far superior to being out
of it completely. I am talking patriotism aside. But it can be a trying time
when everything seems fraught with uncertainty. But a fresh coat of paint
might not be a bad idea.
This past month saw the mailboxes of most of us stuffed with losses from
individual retirement accounts and 401(k) portfolios. And I hope that is the
worst of what we found. But optimism has its limits, and besides, we should
all know better by now.
Peter Lynch, former head guy at Fidelity Investments has long been known for
his rose colored outlook of the investment market. He sells investments. He
knows that the only things that keeps the market going is buyers and sellers
present, and actively trading. He is quoted as saying that he sees the next
10,000 points in the market will be up. Which is good, if you think about it,
because the the other direction would take that venerable index to below zero.
By no means am I trying to trash a trader for wanting folks back into the
investment game. Its his business. But the reasons he uses are not the right
ones. But a little shot of realism wouldn't hurt. Or would it?
If you are continuing to deliver your weekly or monthly stipend to your
retirement accounts despite what the "market" is doing. Hooray! for you. No
doubt it has been tough especially when it seems s if you are throwing good
money after bad. Perhaps that is the toughest lesson for someone trying to "dollar cost average" their
investments.
If you haven't, you have missed out on possibly on of the lowest lows you are
likely to see for another decade. This economy will eventually strengthen,
and when it does late next year, you will have probably felt like you have
been in a monetary quagmire. Americans move forward carrying the economy with
us because we are free to do so.
I hope your job is secure and things go well for each of you. Recessions tend
to be surprisingly unbiased in who they select to effect.
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